U.S. and Iran Pursue 60-Day Ceasefire Deal Amid Sustained Regional Tensions

Technical negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials continued in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, on June 28–29, focusing on a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The proposed agreement outlines a 60-day ceasefire and includes significant economic incentives, most notably a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and the release of frozen assets. In exchange, Tehran must pledge against nuclear weapon development and halt military provocations. While some oil-related sanctions relief has already been implemented, U.S. officials maintain 'maximum pressure' on Iran’s drone and missile infrastructure. The diplomatic progress remains fragile following a series of military escalations. On June 27, the U.S. launched targeted strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after the commercial vessel M/V Ever Lovely was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has issued a stern warning, stating that Iran "may cease to exist" if the U.S. is compelled to take further decisive military action due to ceasefire violations. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has characterized U.S. and Israeli actions as existential threats to the Iranian state. Regional dynamics further complicate the peace process. Hezbollah recently rejected a U.S.-brokered framework intended to stabilize the Israel-Lebanon border, claiming the deal disproportionately favors Israeli interests. Despite these frictions and a partial resumption of the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, merchant shipping has largely returned to the area. Market analysts note that energy price volatility is now driven less by immediate combat and more by uncertainty regarding the long-term durability of the Swiss-brokered deal.