U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates as Airstrikes Target Bases and the Strait of Hormuz

The fragile two-week Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran is on the verge of collapse following a series of high-intensity military engagements in the Persian Gulf. Between June 27 and 28, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles and drones at eight U.S. military installations, including the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. In response, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) authorized airstrikes against 10 Iranian targets across Sirik, Bandar-e Lengeh, and Qeshm Island, citing Iran's failure to honor the ceasefire. The escalation has transitioned from maritime skirmishes to direct territorial threats. President Trump signaled a hardening U.S. stance, stating that the military may be forced to "finish the job" to resolve the conflict. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned neighboring Gulf states that hosting U.S. offensive operations would lead to severe diplomatic and security consequences, complicating regional alliances. On the periphery, the conflict continues to fuel instability in Lebanon, where Israeli drones struck Nabatieh al-Fawqa as part of the broader regional trilateral framework. Despite the active military exchanges and warnings from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) regarding Middle Eastern airspace, global energy markets have remained unexpectedly resilient, with Brent crude holding steady at approximately $72 per barrel.