U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds Amid Regional Friction Over Shipping and Base Usage

The military pause between U.S., Israeli, and Iranian forces has entered its second week following the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Despite renewed threats from the IRGC regarding shipping compliance in the Strait of Hormuz, ACLED data confirmed zero strike events over the last 24 hours. However, regional tensions remain high as Oman and Iran discuss a potential tolling system for commercial vessels, a move that contradicts President Trump’s recent directives. On the diplomatic front, the Trump administration faces friction with European allies. Italy has publicly rebuked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte over suggestions that the U.S. should have unrestricted access to European bases for Iran-related operations. Italy and Spain continue to block U.S. aircraft from launching strikes from their territory. Inside the administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended temporary sanctions relief as a necessary trade-off for the 60-day technical negotiation period beginning next week in Switzerland. In the Levant, Israel has reaffirmed its commitment to a security buffer zone in Southern Lebanon, refusing to withdraw despite ongoing pressure from Hezbollah. Admiral Brad Cooper of U.S. CENTCOM is currently traveling to Israel to support negotiations. Domestic sentiment remains wary, with recent polling indicating that only 24% of Americans believe the conflict was worth the cost, while 63% express skepticism that the current MOU will result in a lasting peace.