Gulf Allies Skeptical of U.S.-Iran Deal as Core Conflict Drivers Persist

Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have entered a critical phase, but significant hurdles remain. While the Trump administration has lifted the naval blockade and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf partners including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed doubts regarding the 'staying power' of U.S. interests in the region. Analysts suggest that because the current memorandum fails to address Iran’s missile capabilities and proxy networks, the conflict may shift into 'gray-zone' tactics rather than a permanent peace. On the ground, violence flared in Lebanon on Tuesday, highlighting the fragility of the peace roadmap. To combat this, a new 'deconfliction cell' has been formed to manage the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, while separate direct talks between Lebanese and Israeli officials are underway in Washington. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that any progress depends on strict adherence to the agreed text, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance characterized the current progress as a 'foundation' for a final deal rather than a completed agreement. In a move signaling a humanitarian thaw, the U.S. has eased restrictions on Iran's World Cup team, granting players visas to compete in the United States. Despite this cultural opening, security experts remain concerned that leaving Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles untouched provides a lingering flashpoint that could reignite hostilities.