Gulf Allies Skeptical of U.S.-Iran Peace Roadmap as Oil Trade Resumes; Rubio to Visit Region

The 60-day peace roadmap between the United States and Iran is facing significant pushback from U.S. Gulf allies as Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares for emergency diplomatic talks in the region. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have expressed sharp skepticism over a provision granting Tehran a formal role in monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, fearing it grants Iran undue control over vital maritime trade. Furthermore, regional partners remain concerned that the interim deal fails to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and contains vague requirements for a $300 billion reconstruction fund. While the diplomatic framework remains fragile, the U.S. Treasury has moved forward with a 60-day sanctions waiver allowing Iran to export oil and petrochemicals in U.S. dollars. This move has resulted in the first significant movements of Iranian trade through the Strait of Hormuz in months. In exchange, Vice President JD Vance claimed Tehran agreed to readmit nuclear monitors; however, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has since issued a public denial, stating no new nuclear commitments have been made and that economic relief must be fully realized before mutual obligations are implemented. On the security front, a new "deconfliction cell" involving the U.S., Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, and Pakistan has been established to monitor the ceasefire in Lebanon. Notably, the exclusion of Israel from this group has raised concerns abroad that it may serve to limit Israeli military responses to Hezbollah activity. Domestically, Iran continues an aggressive crackdown on internal dissent, with judicial authorities initiating over 2,500 legal proceedings against participants of the January 2026 nationwide protests.