U.S. Signals Near-Term Iran Deal Amid Diplomatic Pressure over Strait of Hormuz

The Trump administration has signaled that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran may be imminent, with Vice President J.D. Vance stating the U.S. is 'very close' to an agreement. President Trump emphasized that the United States holds 'all the cards' in negotiations and will soon make a final determination on the proposed terms. However, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has played down the prospect of an immediate deal, focusing instead on securing alternative trade routes to bypass potential maritime disruptions. On the security front, diplomatic efforts are increasingly focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Oman has acted as a key intermediary, assuring the U.S. that it does not intend to implement a shipping toll, a move intended to keep the waterway open. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte have emphasized that maintaining the flow of global shipping is a multilateral priority, with Rubio warning that the U.S. and its allies are preparing a 'Plan B' if Iran refuses to keep the strait open. Despite the rhetoric, there are signs of managed de-escalation on the water. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly permitted 24 vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. This controlled access suggests a shift toward maritime signaling and diplomatic brinkmanship rather than an immediate move toward military confrontation or a full-scale blockade.