U.S. Intelligence Analyzes Iranian Response Scenarios Amid Stalled Diplomatic Talks

In the last 24 hours, U.S. intelligence has begun assessing potential Iranian reactions to a possible unilateral U.S. victory declaration. Tensions remain high as President Trump warned Tehran to "get smart soon" via social media, rejecting a proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that would have delayed critical nuclear negotiations. The White House continues to advocate for a maritime blockade to maintain "maximum leverage," even as the Pentagon reports total war costs have reached $25 billion. Diplomatically, the U.S. and its Gulf allies have consolidated their opposition to Iran's attempt to gain international support for imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Friction with international bodies also increased after the U.S., UAE, and European powers formally criticized a United Nations decision to appoint Iran to a leadership position at an upcoming nuclear treaty conference. Meanwhile, secondary talks hosted in Pakistan have stalled, with the U.S. canceling negotiator trips due to lack of progress on nuclear issues. On the regional front, Israel has intensified operations against Iranian-backed infrastructure, destroying major tunnels in southern Lebanon and targeting Hamas leadership in Gaza. Despite the military activity, Defense Secretary Hegseth declined to provide specific timelines during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, emphasizing the need to keep strategic commitments confidential from adversaries.