U.S. Sets Israel-Lebanon Talks as Iran Diplomacy Remains Uncertain

The Trump administration has confirmed that Israel and Lebanon will begin negotiations in Washington this Thursday. This diplomatic track appears to be moving forward even as Pakistan-mediated efforts to bring the U.S. and Iran to the table in Islamabad remain uncertain. President Trump has slightly extended the current truce deadline to Wednesday evening Washington time, signaling an interest in a comprehensive deal that exceeds the parameters of the 2015 nuclear agreement. However, U.S. officials testified to Congress that Iran still maintains thousands of missiles and drones, posing a persistent threat to U.S. forces in the region. In Israel, the government expressed strong skepticism regarding the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track during Memorial Day (Yom HaZikaron) observances. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s administration remains focused on military objectives against Hamas and addressing ceasefire violations in Lebanon. While a ten-day truce in Lebanon has largely held, the IDF has warned displaced Lebanese families against returning to certain areas, highlighting the fragile nature of the de-escalation. In Tehran, leadership remains deeply divided. While reports suggest Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf might attend talks in Islamabad if Vice President JD Vance participates, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to resist diplomatic concessions. Pakistan and Egypt are currently applying pressure on Tehran to accept naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure free shipping, though Iranian hardliners have countered with threats of "surprises" on the battlefield if their demands regarding the U.S. blockade are not met.