Iran Evaluates U.S. Proposals Amid Pakistani Mediation Push

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) confirmed on April 18 that it is reviewing fresh diplomatic proposals from the United States, facilitated by Pakistani mediation. Following high-level discussions in Islamabad, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar indicated that both sides were nearing an agreement. However, the process currently faces hurdles as Tehran accuses the Trump administration of introducing "excessive demands" that backtrack on initial frameworks. Iran has maintained a firm stance, stating it will not compromise on its national interests or historic achievements. The diplomatic friction has resonated in global prediction markets, where confidence in a swift resolution is wavering. Betting odds for a ceasefire by April 21 have shifted, reflecting concerns that the Islamabad talks have stalled. Market sentiment suggests a renewed risk of maritime instability, with a slight decrease in the perceived probability that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open through May. Despite these jitters, Pakistan continues its "utmost efforts" to align the views of Washington and Tehran, with a planned visit by the Pakistani army chief to Iran expected to serve as a critical next step in the back-channel negotiations.