Gulf and European Officials Predict Months for U.S.-Iran Deal as Energy Recovery Looms

International officials from the Gulf and Europe have cautioned that a comprehensive diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran remains months away. While ceasefire discussions are ongoing, diplomats emphasize that the path toward a stable long-term agreement is protracted. These assessments come amid a stabilization of global markets as investors begin to look past the initial shocks of the conflict, though significant economic challenges remain regarding the restoration of energy corridors. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has underscored the scale of the recovery task, with Chief Fatih Birol warning that it could take up to two years to restore oil and gas output to pre-war levels following U.S. airstrikes and naval pressures on Iranian infrastructure. In tandem with energy concerns, the conflict is impacting global defense logistics; U.S. officials have notified European counterparts that scheduled weapons deliveries may be delayed as American production is diverted to address immediate regional needs. Market reactions remain mixed as the "Iran war shock" begins to fade. While Singapore has seen a surge in non-oil exports and Chinese stocks have gained on receding risk, some sectors, such as Japanese semiconductor supplies, remain under pressure. Meanwhile, the Bank of Israel noted that domestic markets have shown resilience despite the regional instability, even as the global natural gas market continues to navigate significant disruptions triggered by the hostilities.