Economic and Humanitarian Toll Mounts in U.S.-Iran Conflict

The conflict between the United States and Iran has triggered a significant global economic shock and a growing humanitarian crisis. Since the U.S. bombing campaign began on February 28, 2026, crude oil prices have surged from an average of $64 per barrel to over $90. This spike is already impacting the agricultural sector, where diesel prices have risen to $3.90 per gallon. Analysts warn that should oil reach $120 per barrel, fuel costs could become unsustainable for many global producers. On the ground, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by the hostilities. Despite the intensity of the campaign—comprising over 6,500 air sorties and 7,000 targets—U.S. and Israeli forces have reportedly exercised strategic restraint by avoiding strikes on Iran's regular army. Military experts suggest this is an intentional move to maintain the conventional military as a potential counterweight to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) should domestic unrest occur within Iran. As the Trump administration navigates the conflict, debate remains over the ultimate strategic endgame. While some policy experts advocate for comprehensive regime change, others suggest the administration's priority is a swift conclusion to the war to protect domestic interests. However, the risk of further escalation remains high, particularly concerning potential disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.