Conflict Escalates as Israel Targets Tehran and Oil Markets React to Strait Disruptions

On the 13th day of hostilities, Israeli airstrikes have intensified, targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters, command centers, and ballistic missile sites in central and western Iran, including the capital, Tehran. In response, Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces and Iranian missile volleys have forced millions of Israeli citizens into shelters. Amidst the escalation, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, following consultations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, outlined three "red lines" for peace: formal recognition of sovereign rights, financial reparations, and international security guarantees. The conflict has expanded geographically, with Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—reporting Iranian drone and missile strikes on oil refineries, airports, and seaports. These disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed global oil prices above $100 per barrel. To stabilize markets, the Trump administration announced plans to release 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a larger 400-million-barrel international effort. Analysts suggest the scale of this release indicates an expectation of a prolonged conflict rather than a swift resolution. Domestically, the financial and political toll is mounting. U.S. military expenditures reached $11.3 billion in the first six days alone, with over $5.6 billion spent on munitions. Identifying a lack of progress in "permanently changing Iran's behavior," Ranking Democrat Rep. Adam Smith has called for increased congressional oversight. Meanwhile, the IRGC has signaled a shift toward sustained asymmetric tactics, claiming it is prepared for six months of high-intensity warfare using advanced heavy warheads.